The United States faces a potential resurgence of measles as routine childhood vaccination rates continue to decline. A recent study forecasts up to 51 million measles cases over the next 25 years if vaccination coverage falls by half. Although measles was declared eliminated in the US in 2000, recent data reveals alarming trends. In 2024 alone, more than 900 cases have already been reported across the country. These developments underline the critical importance of maintaining high immunization rates to prevent outbreaks.
Table of Contents:
- Stanford, Baylor, Rice and Texas A&M researchers project a worrying future
- West Texas outbreak highlights the growing risk
- Widespread vaccine declines would trigger multiple epidemics
- Challenges in modeling show the complexity of the threat
Stanford, Baylor, Rice and Texas A&M researchers project a worrying future
The new study, published in the journal "JAMA," was conducted by researchers from Stanford University, Baylor College of Medicine, Rice University and Texas A&M University. The analysis used data collected from 2004 to 2023 to model the potential spread of measles under different vaccination scenarios. Currently, vaccination rates vary between 87.7% and 95.6% across US states. However, because measles is one of the most contagious diseases, at least 95% of a population must be vaccinated with two doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine to prevent outbreaks.
The study indicates that at present levels, measles could become endemic in the US within 25 years. If vaccination rates drop by 10%, the researchers predict approximately 11.1 million cases over that time. In contrast, if coverage improves by just 5%, only about 5,800 cases are expected within the same period.
West Texas outbreak highlights the growing risk
In 2024, more than half of the US states reported at least one case of measles. The majority of infections were linked to an outbreak centered in West Texas, an area known for its low vaccination rates. Three deaths have been recorded: two children and one adult, none of whom were vaccinated.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that MMR vaccination rates among kindergartners fell to 92.7% for the 2023-24 school year. The decline began during the COVID-19 pandemic and has yet to reverse. Without sufficient community immunity, localized outbreaks could grow and spread nationally.
Widespread vaccine declines would trigger multiple epidemics
The research further explored how other vaccine-preventable diseases could reemerge if childhood immunization rates fall dramatically. A 50% drop in vaccination coverage would not only cause 51.2 million measles cases, but also lead to 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases and 197 diphtheria cases over 25 years. This would result in an estimated 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,000 deaths.
Key projections include:
- 51.2 million measles cases with a 50% drop in vaccinations.
- 9.9 million rubella cases over 25 years.
- 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis if immunization efforts falter.
- 197 diphtheria cases in the event of widespread vaccine decline.
These findings emphasize the potential for multiple epidemics if immunization efforts are not sustained.
Challenges in modeling show the complexity of the threat
One limitation of the study is the difficulty in accounting for variations between different communities. Each state was analyzed separately, without adjusting for differences in population size and distribution. For example, large states like Texas differ significantly from smaller ones like Rhode Island, making precise predictions complex.
Despite these limitations, the research demonstrates the urgent need for consistent and widespread vaccination. Without robust immunization programs, the United States risks reversing decades of progress against diseases once under control. Maintaining high vaccination coverage is crucial to safeguarding public health for future generations.
Quelle: CNN