A recent study forecasts serious dental and financial consequences if fluoride is removed from all public water systems across the United States. The findings, based on national health data, suggest a sharp rise in tooth decay among children, along with mounting costs for families and healthcare providers.
Table of Contents:
- Key predictions from the analysis
- Utah, Florida and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drive shift in fluoride policy
- Analysis of national health survey reveals alarming outcomes
- Canadian city Calgary offers real-world example of rising decay
- Study finds limited benefit in reducing fluorosis
Key predictions from the analysis
25.4 million additional cavities in children over the next 5 years
An estimated $9.8 billion in dental treatment expenses within that period
More than 53 million cavities projected by year 10 if fluoride remains banned
The results were published in a recent issue of JAMA Health Forum.
Utah, Florida and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drive shift in fluoride policy
Two states - Utah and Florida, have already implemented full bans on water fluoridation in public systems. Other states, including Kentucky, Massachusetts and Nebraska, are reportedly evaluating similar policies. The shift is partially attributed to the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of the Department of Health and Human Services. His tenure has included a broad restructuring of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's oral health programs, cutting funding to fluoride promotion initiatives.
As part of these changes, Kennedy has emphasized alternative interpretations of fluoride’s safety, despite decades of scientific support for its benefits in preventing tooth decay. This approach has influenced several states to reconsider their positions on community water fluoridation.
Analysis of national health survey reveals alarming outcomes
Researchers based their projections on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a program conducted annually by the CDC. The analysis covered 8,484 children from birth through age 19. Two models were created: one simulating nationwide optimal fluoride levels, and another predicting the effects of a total ban.
The estimated outcome of eliminating fluoride includes $19.4 billion in cumulative dental treatment costs within 10 years. This includes fillings, emergency dental procedures, and potential long-term restorative care. Importantly, this estimate does not account for secondary costs such as anesthesia, missed parental workdays, or repeat treatments.
The study also identified disparities in impact. Children from low-income families and those relying on Medicaid are expected to suffer the most, as access to dental care remains limited in many areas.
Canadian city Calgary offers real-world example of rising decay
Calgary, a city in Canada, offers a direct comparison for potential U.S. outcomes. In 2011, local leaders voted to eliminate fluoride from the public water supply. Within ten years, significant increases in childhood tooth decay were recorded. In response, officials voted to reinstate fluoride programs.
The Calgary case underscores the risks of eliminating fluoride, especially for urban populations with diverse healthcare access. Similar increases in decay may become widespread if U.S. cities adopt permanent bans.
Study finds limited benefit in reducing fluorosis
Critics of fluoridation often cite dental fluorosis - a condition causing cosmetic white or brown spots on teeth - as a reason for bans. However, the analysis projected only 200,000 fewer cases of fluorosis over five years under a national ban, a small number compared to the millions of projected cavities. The condition is cosmetic and not linked to physical health complications.
The researchers did not include cognitive effects in their model. While a few international studies have explored potential links between fluoride exposure and IQ levels, U.S. data shows no evidence of cognitive decline associated with current fluoride levels in public water. The focus of this analysis remained on dental outcomes and economic consequences.
The findings suggest that discontinuing water fluoridation across the country would reverse decades of progress in oral health, disproportionately affect low-income communities, and burden the healthcare system with billions in additional costs.
Source: NBC NEWS